Elections / Demo election (synthetic measures) /
Initiative · 1 model · value list 1-draft.r4 · prompt v1
The name above identifies the measure on the ballot. The models never saw it. They read only the measure's own text.
Only one model has been run on this measure so far. Results marked “1/1 models” have not been checked by a second model.
The text bears on 9 of the 83 values we check. Each value is something some people care about. A measure that supports one often conflicts with another, so both are shown, side by side, with the words that cause them.
Supports the text moves things the way this value wants (2) Conflicts with the text moves things the other way (3) Both some of each (4)
Open a value to see what the text does to it and why.
About: Taxes and fees paid by individuals and families. Supported when: they go down.
Conflicts with SYN-0001 §2 stated 1/1 models
“The Department shall issue a storage certificate to each applicant upon payment of a fee of twenty-five dollars ($25).”It adds a new fee that individuals must pay if they apply for a storage certificate.
About: Money available for public services. Supported when: it goes up.
Supports SYN-0001 §2 likely 1/1 models
“The Department shall issue a storage certificate to each applicant upon payment of a fee of twenty-five dollars ($25).”It creates a source of revenue for a public department through the establishment of a $25 certification fee.
About: Prices, fees, and charges the text sets, caps, or directly changes, including rent, housing charges, child-care fees, food, goods, and utility services (healthcare prices are on C51, energy prices on C55; predicted price effects of other clauses go to Part B). Supported when: they go down.
Conflicts with SYN-0001 §2 stated 1/1 models
“The Department shall issue a storage certificate to each applicant upon payment of a fee of twenty-five dollars ($25).”It sets a direct fee of $25 for applicants to receive a storage certificate.
About: Government agencies, programs, mandates, staff, regulatory powers, and spending authority. Supported when: any of these is removed or reduced. Read from the other side, this is “Government programs and powers”.
Conflicts with SYN-0001 §1 stated 1/1 models
“A person who keeps a firearm in a residence shall store it in a locked container when it is not being carried or used.”It establishes a new government mandate regarding how individuals must handle their personal property at home.
Supports SYN-0001 §3 stated 1/1 models
“A city or county may not adopt or enforce any ordinance relating to firearm storage.”It limits government reach by stripping local jurisdictions of their regulatory power over firearm storage.
About: Government agencies, programs, mandates, staff, regulatory powers, and spending authority. Supported when: any of these is created or expanded. Read from the other side, this is “Limits on government reach”.
Supports SYN-0001 §1 stated 1/1 models
“A person who keeps a firearm in a residence shall store it in a locked container when it is not being carried or used.”It institutes a new government mandate regulating private behavior.
Conflicts with SYN-0001 §3 stated 1/1 models
“A city or county may not adopt or enforce any ordinance relating to firearm storage.”It reduces the regulatory powers of local government bodies over firearm storage.
About: Authority split between local governments and the state (preemption). Supported when: authority moves to local governments. Read from the other side, this is “Statewide uniform rules”.
Conflicts with SYN-0001 §3 stated 1/1 models
“This act occupies the whole field of firearm storage regulation. A city or county may not adopt or enforce any ordinance relating to firearm storage.”It removes local regulatory authority by explicitly forbidding cities and counties from enacting or enforcing storage ordinances.
About: Authority split between local governments and the state (preemption). Supported when: authority moves to the state. Read from the other side, this is “Local control”.
Supports SYN-0001 §3 stated 1/1 models
“This act occupies the whole field of firearm storage regulation. A city or county may not adopt or enforce any ordinance relating to firearm storage.”It places all regulatory authority over firearm storage uniformly at the state level by expressly preempting local ordinances.
About: Legal ability to own, carry, and use firearms. Supported when: it expands. Read from the other side, this is “Firearm regulation”.
Conflicts with SYN-0001 §1 stated 1/1 models
“A person who keeps a firearm in a residence shall store it in a locked container when it is not being carried or used.”It restricts how an individual may keep their firearm at home.
Supports SYN-0001 §3 stated 1/1 models
“A city or county may not adopt or enforce any ordinance relating to firearm storage.”It protects gun owners from having to comply with a variety of localized storage rules.
About: Rules on purchase, possession, carry, transfer, and storage of firearms. Supported when: they tighten. Read from the other side, this is “Firearm ownership and carry”.
Supports SYN-0001 §1 stated 1/1 models
“A person who keeps a firearm in a residence shall store it in a locked container when it is not being carried or used.”It tightens regulations on firearms by introducing a specific storage requirement in residences.
Conflicts with SYN-0001 §3 stated 1/1 models
“A city or county may not adopt or enforce any ordinance relating to firearm storage.”It removes the ability of local governments to create and enforce their own, potentially stricter, firearm storage regulations.
Certainty: stated = the text does it; likely = follows directly; depends on implementation = turns on future rules, funding, or courts. Each explanation is one model's wording; the badge shows how many models cite the same words.
The same results, arranged by where they come from. One section often supports some values and conflicts with others.
SYN-0001 §1 Requires individuals keeping a firearm in a residence to store it in a locked container when it is not being carried or used.
SYN-0001 §2 Directs the Department to issue a storage certificate to applicants who pay a $25 fee.
SYN-0001 §3 Preempts local governments from adopting or enforcing their own ordinances regarding firearm storage, occupying the field exclusively at the state level.
From campaign filings and public endorsements, as of 2026-10-20. The models never saw any of this; the analysis above comes from the text alone.
$1,850,000 raised by 1 committee
| Example Household Safety Fund | $1,200,000 |
| Example Donor One | $250,000 |
$2,400,000 raised by 1 committee
| Example Sporting Council | $1,900,000 |
| Example Retailers Association | $150,000 |
| 1 other individual | $1,200 |
Sources: Synthetic demo data (not real filings). Individuals who gave less than $5,000 are counted but not named.
Predictions and context from the models. Unlike the results above, these are not what the text says. They are reasoning about what may follow.
Highlighted words are cited by a result above. Select a quote to jump here.
SYN-0001 §1 A person who keeps a firearm in a residence shall store it in a locked container when it is not being carried or used.
SYN-0001 §2 The Department shall issue a storage certificate to each applicant upon payment of a fee of twenty-five dollars ($25).
SYN-0001 §3 This act occupies the whole field of firearm storage regulation. A city or county may not adopt or enforce any ordinance relating to firearm storage.
No state law governs firearm storage in a residence. Cities and counties may adopt storage ordinances.
| Model | Version reported | Runs used | Attempts | Rejected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| gemini-3.1-pro-preview via vertex | gemini-3.1-pro-preview | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Rejected attempts failed validation (a quote not in the text, a value skipped, a result that doesn't match its evidence, a missing mirror, a blocked word, malformed output) and were rerun. They are kept in the bundle.
| Value | Status | gemini-3.1-pro-preview |
|---|---|---|
| Household taxes and fees | consensus | conflicts (1/1) |
| Funding for public services | consensus | supports (1/1) |
| Prices and charges paid by households | consensus | conflicts (1/1) |
| Limits on government reach | consensus | both (1/1) |
| Government programs and powers | consensus | both (1/1) |
| Local control | consensus | conflicts (1/1) |
| Statewide uniform rules | consensus | supports (1/1) |
| Firearm ownership and carry | consensus | both (1/1) |
| Firearm regulation | consensus | both (1/1) |
consensus: a majority of models reached the same result · split: two or more found an effect without a majority · outlier: one model only · below half: found in fewer than half of that model's runs. Values no model found in any run are not listed.
ee89a88ebefb133b…python3 tools/run_eval.py measure.json --provider <vendor> --model <id> --runs 3 (instructions in the bundle).